Criciúma vs Náutico Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Criciúma vs Náutico
Model pick: Criciúma (63%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.93 – 0.65
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Criciúma | Náutico |
|---|
| League position | #1 (39 pts) | #12 (24 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 0.4 | 1.6 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 30% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 1.2 |
*Criciúma shown at home, Náutico shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Criciúma — last 5
LWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Náutico — last 5
LDLLW
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Criciúma (home) | Náutico (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-3-0 in 9 (1.3 / 0.4 goals per game) | 3-2-5 in 10 (1.6 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 42% |
| Top scorer | Romulo Otero (3) | Vinicius (5) |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.93 vs 0.65):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Criciúma or draw (1X) | 88% |
| Double chance — Náutico or draw (X2) | 32% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Criciúma clean sheet | 52% |
| Náutico clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Criciúma is the model's most likely outcome at
63%. Criciúma are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Criciúma vs Náutico — FAQ
Who will win Criciúma vs Náutico?
Our statistical model makes Criciúma the most likely result at 63%. Full probabilities: Criciúma 63%, draw 23%, Náutico 14%.
Will both teams score in Criciúma vs Náutico?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Criciúma vs Náutico?
Expected goals are 1.93 for Criciúma and 0.65 for Náutico — about 2.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Criciúma vs Náutico?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Criciúma or draw is 88%.