Crotone vs Foggia Prediction & Preview
Serie C - Group A (Italy) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE C - GROUP A (ITALY)
Crotone vs Foggia
Model pick: Crotone (58%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.97 – 0.9
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Crotone | Foggia |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.0 | 0.6 / 1.6 |
*Crotone shown at home, Foggia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Crotone — last 5
WLDDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Foggia — last 5
LDLLL
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Crotone (home) | Foggia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 50% |
Serie C - Group A (Italy) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.33
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Serie C - Group A (Italy) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.97 vs 0.9):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — Crotone or draw (1X) | 84% |
| Double chance — Foggia or draw (X2) | 38% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| Crotone clean sheet | 41% |
| Foggia clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Crotone is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. Crotone are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Crotone vs Foggia — FAQ
Who will win Crotone vs Foggia?
Our statistical model makes Crotone the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: Crotone 58%, draw 23%, Foggia 19%.
Will both teams score in Crotone vs Foggia?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Crotone vs Foggia?
Expected goals are 1.97 for Crotone and 0.9 for Foggia — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Crotone vs Foggia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (11%). Double chance for Crotone or draw is 84%.