Cruzeiro vs Flamengo Prediction & Preview
BrazilA · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BRAZILA
Cruzeiro vs Flamengo
Model pick: Flamengo (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.12 – 1.08
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cruzeiro | Flamengo |
|---|
| League position | #6 (33 pts) | #2 (42 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 0.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 42% | 55% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.6 | 2.0 / 0.8 |
*Cruzeiro shown at home, Flamengo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cruzeiro — last 5
DWWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 38% of home games go over 2.5.
Flamengo — last 5
DDWDW
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cruzeiro (home) | Flamengo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-4-3 in 12 (1.6 / 1.2 goals per game) | 6-3-2 in 11 (1.8 / 0.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 52% |
| Top scorer | Pereira Matheus (2) | Henrique Bruno (4) |
BrazilA — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.38
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 48%
Use these BrazilA averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.12 vs 1.08):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Cruzeiro or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Flamengo or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| Cruzeiro clean sheet | 34% |
| Flamengo clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Flamengo is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Flamengo edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cruzeiro vs Flamengo — FAQ
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model makes Flamengo the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Cruzeiro 34%, draw 29%, Flamengo 38%.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
Expected goals are 1.12 for Cruzeiro and 1.08 for Flamengo — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Cruzeiro or draw is 66%.