Cruzeiro vs Mirassol Prediction & Preview
BrazilA · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BRAZILA
Cruzeiro vs Mirassol
Model pick: Cruzeiro (51%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.29 – 0.96
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cruzeiro | Mirassol |
|---|
| League position | #7 (30 pts) | #14 (23 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 36% | 11% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.0 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
*Cruzeiro shown at home, Mirassol shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cruzeiro — last 5
LWLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 39% of home games go over 2.5.
Mirassol — last 5
DWDWD
On the road: clean sheet 34% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cruzeiro (home) | Mirassol (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-4-3 in 11 (1.5 / 1.2 goals per game) | 1-2-6 in 9 (0.9 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 34% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 41% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 33% |
BrazilA — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.38
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 48%
Use these BrazilA averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.29 vs 0.96):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Cruzeiro or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Mirassol or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Cruzeiro clean sheet | 38% |
| Mirassol clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cruzeiro is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Cruzeiro are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cruzeiro vs Mirassol — FAQ
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model makes Cruzeiro the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Cruzeiro 51%, draw 27%, Mirassol 22%.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Mirassol?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Cruzeiro vs Mirassol?
Expected goals are 1.29 for Cruzeiro and 0.96 for Mirassol — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cruzeiro vs Mirassol?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Cruzeiro or draw is 72%.