Crvena Zvezda vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva Prediction & Preview
UEFA Champions League (Europe) · Aug 11, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE (EUROPE)
Crvena Zvezda vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Model pick: Crvena Zvezda (52%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.22 – 0.68
Total goals: 0.9
Over 2.5: 18%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Crvena Zvezda | Hapoel Be'er Sheva |
|---|
| League position | #15 (14 pts) | #9 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.5 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.4 / 0.4 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
*Crvena Zvezda shown at home, Hapoel Be'er Sheva shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Crvena Zvezda — last 5
WWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 53% of the time; 75% of home games go over 2.5.
Hapoel Be'er Sheva — last 5
LLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 35% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Crvena Zvezda (home) | Hapoel Be'er Sheva (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-2-0 in 4 (1.0 / 0.5 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 53% | 35% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 43% |
UEFA Champions League (Europe) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.92
Home wins: 53%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 53%
Use these UEFA Champions League (Europe) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.22 vs 0.68):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (41%) |
| Double chance — Crvena Zvezda or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Hapoel Be'er Sheva or draw (X2) | 89% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 53% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 1% / 99% |
| Crvena Zvezda clean sheet | 51% |
| Hapoel Be'er Sheva clean sheet | 80% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Crvena Zvezda is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Crvena Zvezda are backed at home, where they average 2.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (82% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Crvena Zvezda vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva — FAQ
Who will win Crvena Zvezda vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
Our statistical model makes Crvena Zvezda the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Crvena Zvezda 52%, draw 27%, Hapoel Be'er Sheva 22%.
Will both teams score in Crvena Zvezda vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Crvena Zvezda vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
Expected goals are 0.22 for Crvena Zvezda and 0.68 for Hapoel Be'er Sheva — about 0.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Crvena Zvezda vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (41%). Double chance for Crvena Zvezda or draw is 58%.