Crvena Zvezda vs Čukarički Prediction & Preview
Super Liga (Serbia) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIGA (SERBIA)
Crvena Zvezda vs Čukarički
Model pick: Crvena Zvezda (72%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.72 – 0.81
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 61%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Crvena Zvezda | Čukarički |
|---|
| League position | #15 (14 pts) | #1 (10 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.5 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 0.8 | 1.8 / 0.6 |
*Crvena Zvezda shown at home, Čukarički shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Crvena Zvezda — last 5
WWLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 53% of the time; 74% of home games go over 2.5.
Čukarički — last 5
LWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Crvena Zvezda (home) | Čukarički (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-2-0 in 4 (1.0 / 0.5 goals per game) | 1-1-0 in 2 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 53% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 52% |
Super Liga (Serbia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.62
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Super Liga (Serbia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.72 vs 0.81):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — Crvena Zvezda or draw (1X) | 91% |
| Double chance — Čukarički or draw (X2) | 23% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 86% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 87% / 13% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 47% / 53% |
| Crvena Zvezda clean sheet | 44% |
| Čukarički clean sheet | 7% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Crvena Zvezda is the model's most likely outcome at
72%. Crvena Zvezda are backed at home, where they average 2.9 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (61% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Crvena Zvezda vs Čukarički — FAQ
Who will win Crvena Zvezda vs Čukarički?
Our statistical model makes Crvena Zvezda the most likely result at 72%. Full probabilities: Crvena Zvezda 72%, draw 17%, Čukarički 11%.
Will both teams score in Crvena Zvezda vs Čukarički?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Crvena Zvezda vs Čukarički?
Expected goals are 2.72 for Crvena Zvezda and 0.81 for Čukarički — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Crvena Zvezda vs Čukarički?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (11%). Double chance for Crvena Zvezda or draw is 91%.