Csepel vs ESMTK Budapest Prediction & Preview
Nb III (Hungary) · Aug 12, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NB III (HUNGARY)
Csepel vs ESMTK Budapest
Model pick: ESMTK Budapest (53%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.53 – 1.34
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 38%
Both teams score: 42%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Csepel | ESMTK Budapest |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.0 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 1.5 |
*Csepel shown at home, ESMTK Budapest shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Csepel — last 5
DLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
ESMTK Budapest — last 5
WD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Csepel (home) | ESMTK Budapest (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
Nb III (Hungary) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.7
Home wins: 51%
Draws: 20%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 74%
BTTS: 64%
Use these Nb III (Hungary) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.53 vs 1.34):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (21%) |
| Double chance — Csepel or draw (1X) | 43% |
| Double chance — ESMTK Budapest or draw (X2) | 85% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 56% / 44% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 12% / 88% |
| Csepel clean sheet | 26% |
| ESMTK Budapest clean sheet | 59% |
🎯 Our Verdict
ESMTK Budapest is the model's most likely outcome at
53%. Despite playing away, ESMTK Budapest edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (62% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Csepel vs ESMTK Budapest — FAQ
Who will win Csepel vs ESMTK Budapest?
Our statistical model makes ESMTK Budapest the most likely result at 53%. Full probabilities: Csepel 17%, draw 30%, ESMTK Budapest 53%.
Will both teams score in Csepel vs ESMTK Budapest?
The model gives a 42% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Csepel vs ESMTK Budapest?
Expected goals are 0.53 for Csepel and 1.34 for ESMTK Budapest — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Csepel vs ESMTK Budapest?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (21%). Double chance for Csepel or draw is 43%.