CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Arda Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Jul 31, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Arda
Model pick: CSKA 1948 Sofia (45%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.3 – 0.98
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| CSKA 1948 Sofia | Arda |
|---|
| League position | #5 (1 pts) | #1 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
*CSKA 1948 Sofia shown at home, Arda shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
CSKA 1948 Sofia — last 5
LWDDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Arda — last 5
LDLDW
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 30% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | CSKA 1948 Sofia (home) | Arda (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 30% |
| Top scorer | Leandro Godoy (9) | Birsent Karagaren (7) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.43
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.3 vs 0.98):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — CSKA 1948 Sofia or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Arda or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| CSKA 1948 Sofia clean sheet | 38% |
| Arda clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
CSKA 1948 Sofia is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. CSKA 1948 Sofia are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Arda — FAQ
Who will win CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Arda?
Our statistical model makes CSKA 1948 Sofia the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: CSKA 1948 Sofia 45%, draw 29%, Arda 26%.
Will both teams score in CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Arda?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Arda?
Expected goals are 1.3 for CSKA 1948 Sofia and 0.98 for Arda — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Arda?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for CSKA 1948 Sofia or draw is 72%.