CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Cherno More Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Cherno More
Model pick: CSKA 1948 Sofia (48%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.18 – 0.91
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| CSKA 1948 Sofia | Cherno More |
|---|
| League position | #2 (10 pts) | #12 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
*CSKA 1948 Sofia shown at home, Cherno More shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
CSKA 1948 Sofia — last 5
WWWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Cherno More — last 5
DDDLL
On the road: clean sheet 34% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | CSKA 1948 Sofia (home) | Cherno More (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-0 in 2 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-1 in 2 (0.5 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 34% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 40% |
| Top scorer | Leandro Godoy (9) | Georgi Lazarov (5) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.18 vs 0.91):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — CSKA 1948 Sofia or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Cherno More or draw (X2) | 58% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| CSKA 1948 Sofia clean sheet | 40% |
| Cherno More clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
CSKA 1948 Sofia is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. CSKA 1948 Sofia are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Cherno More — FAQ
Who will win CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Cherno More?
Our statistical model makes CSKA 1948 Sofia the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: CSKA 1948 Sofia 48%, draw 28%, Cherno More 24%.
Will both teams score in CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Cherno More?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Cherno More?
Expected goals are 1.18 for CSKA 1948 Sofia and 0.91 for Cherno More — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Cherno More?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for CSKA 1948 Sofia or draw is 72%.