CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Model pick: CSKA 1948 Sofia (51%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.56 – 0.81
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| CSKA 1948 Sofia | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
|---|
| League position | #4 (13 pts) | #12 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.7 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.2 | 0.6 / 1.4 |
*CSKA 1948 Sofia shown at home, Lokomotiv Plovdiv shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
CSKA 1948 Sofia — last 5
WDWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv — last 5
LWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | CSKA 1948 Sofia (home) | Lokomotiv Plovdiv (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-0-0 in 3 (2.7 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-3 in 3 (0.0 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 41% |
| Top scorer | Leandro Godoy (9) | Mascote (7) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.56 vs 0.81):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — CSKA 1948 Sofia or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw (X2) | 45% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| CSKA 1948 Sofia clean sheet | 44% |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
CSKA 1948 Sofia is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. CSKA 1948 Sofia are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv — FAQ
Who will win CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Our statistical model makes CSKA 1948 Sofia the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: CSKA 1948 Sofia 51%, draw 27%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 23%.
Will both teams score in CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Expected goals are 1.56 for CSKA 1948 Sofia and 0.81 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for CSKA 1948 Sofia or draw is 81%.