CSKA Moscow vs Fakel Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Russia) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 13:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (RUSSIA)
CSKA Moscow vs Fakel
Model pick: CSKA Moscow (67%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.73 – 0.5
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 43%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| CSKA Moscow | Fakel |
|---|
| League position | #6 (5 pts) | #2 (68 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.7 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.6 | 1.0 / 1.8 |
*CSKA Moscow shown at home, Fakel shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
CSKA Moscow — last 5
LWDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 44% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Fakel — last 5
DLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | CSKA Moscow (home) | Fakel (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-2-0 in 3 (1.0 / 0.7 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 44% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 45% |
Premier League (Russia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.53
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 49%
Use these Premier League (Russia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.73 vs 0.5):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — CSKA Moscow or draw (1X) | 90% |
| Double chance — Fakel or draw (X2) | 32% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| CSKA Moscow clean sheet | 61% |
| Fakel clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
CSKA Moscow is the model's most likely outcome at
67%. CSKA Moscow are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ CSKA Moscow vs Fakel — FAQ
Who will win CSKA Moscow vs Fakel?
Our statistical model makes CSKA Moscow the most likely result at 67%. Full probabilities: CSKA Moscow 67%, draw 21%, Fakel 12%.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Fakel?
The model gives a 43% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in CSKA Moscow vs Fakel?
Expected goals are 1.73 for CSKA Moscow and 0.5 for Fakel — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in CSKA Moscow vs Fakel?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (19%). Double chance for CSKA Moscow or draw is 90%.