CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Russia) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 17:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (RUSSIA)
CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow
Model pick: CSKA Moscow (49%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.7 – 1.12
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| CSKA Moscow | Lokomotiv Moscow |
|---|
| League position | #5 (8 pts) | #12 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.5 | 1.0 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
*CSKA Moscow shown at home, Lokomotiv Moscow shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
CSKA Moscow — last 5
WDWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 45% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Lokomotiv Moscow — last 5
DLLDD
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | CSKA Moscow (home) | Lokomotiv Moscow (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-2-0 in 4 (1.0 / 0.5 goals per game) | 0-1-1 in 2 (1.0 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 45% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% |
Premier League (Russia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.53
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 49%
Use these Premier League (Russia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.7 vs 1.12):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — CSKA Moscow or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — Lokomotiv Moscow or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| CSKA Moscow clean sheet | 33% |
| Lokomotiv Moscow clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
CSKA Moscow is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. CSKA Moscow are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow — FAQ
Who will win CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow?
Our statistical model makes CSKA Moscow the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: CSKA Moscow 49%, draw 25%, Lokomotiv Moscow 26%.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow?
Expected goals are 1.7 for CSKA Moscow and 1.12 for Lokomotiv Moscow — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for CSKA Moscow or draw is 75%.