CSKA Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Jul 27, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
CSKA Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
Model pick: CSKA Sofia (56%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.7 – 0.75
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| CSKA Sofia | Botev Plovdiv |
|---|
| League position | #10 (1 pts) | #6 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.6 | 2.2 / 0.6 |
*CSKA Sofia shown at home, Botev Plovdiv shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
CSKA Sofia — last 5
WWWDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 52% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Botev Plovdiv — last 5
WLWWD
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | CSKA Sofia (home) | Botev Plovdiv (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 52% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 49% |
| Top scorer | Leandro Godoy (9) | Mascote (7) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.43
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.7 vs 0.75):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — CSKA Sofia or draw (1X) | 84% |
| Double chance — Botev Plovdiv or draw (X2) | 40% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| CSKA Sofia clean sheet | 47% |
| Botev Plovdiv clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
CSKA Sofia is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. CSKA Sofia are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ CSKA Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv — FAQ
Who will win CSKA Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv?
Our statistical model makes CSKA Sofia the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: CSKA Sofia 56%, draw 26%, Botev Plovdiv 18%.
Will both teams score in CSKA Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in CSKA Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv?
Expected goals are 1.7 for CSKA Sofia and 0.75 for Botev Plovdiv — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in CSKA Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for CSKA Sofia or draw is 84%.