CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More
Model pick: CSKA Sofia (51%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.4 – 0.69
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| CSKA Sofia | Cherno More |
|---|
| League position | #3 (13 pts) | #10 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.3 / 1.0 | 0.7 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 2.4 |
*CSKA Sofia shown at home, Cherno More shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
CSKA Sofia — last 5
WWLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 51% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Cherno More — last 5
LLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 34% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | CSKA Sofia (home) | Cherno More (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-0-0 in 3 (3.3 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-2 in 3 (0.7 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 51% | 34% |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 40% |
| Top scorer | Leandro Godoy (9) | Georgi Lazarov (5) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.4 vs 0.69):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — CSKA Sofia or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Cherno More or draw (X2) | 46% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| CSKA Sofia clean sheet | 50% |
| Cherno More clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
CSKA Sofia is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. CSKA Sofia are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More — FAQ
Who will win CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More?
Our statistical model makes CSKA Sofia the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: CSKA Sofia 51%, draw 29%, Cherno More 20%.
Will both teams score in CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More?
Expected goals are 1.4 for CSKA Sofia and 0.69 for Cherno More — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (17%). Double chance for CSKA Sofia or draw is 82%.