CSKA Sofia vs Dunav Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 02, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
CSKA Sofia vs Dunav
Model pick: CSKA Sofia (73%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.01 – 0.54
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 40%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| CSKA Sofia | Dunav |
|---|
| League position | #10 (1 pts) | #13 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.0 | 0.8 / 2.0 |
*CSKA Sofia shown at home, Dunav shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
CSKA Sofia — last 5
WWDDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 51% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Dunav — last 5
LDDLL
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | CSKA Sofia (home) | Dunav (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 51% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 50% |
| Top scorer | Leandro Godoy (9) | – |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.01 vs 0.54):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — CSKA Sofia or draw (1X) | 91% |
| Double chance — Dunav or draw (X2) | 28% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| CSKA Sofia clean sheet | 58% |
| Dunav clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
CSKA Sofia is the model's most likely outcome at
73%. CSKA Sofia are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ CSKA Sofia vs Dunav — FAQ
Who will win CSKA Sofia vs Dunav?
Our statistical model makes CSKA Sofia the most likely result at 73%. Full probabilities: CSKA Sofia 73%, draw 18%, Dunav 8%.
Will both teams score in CSKA Sofia vs Dunav?
The model gives a 40% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in CSKA Sofia vs Dunav?
Expected goals are 2.01 for CSKA Sofia and 0.54 for Dunav — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in CSKA Sofia vs Dunav?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (16%). Double chance for CSKA Sofia or draw is 91%.