Cuiabá vs Fortaleza Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 21:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Cuiabá vs Fortaleza
Model pick: Fortaleza (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.97 – 1.05
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cuiabá | Fortaleza |
|---|
| League position | #14 (25 pts) | #4 (34 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.8 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 30% | 20% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.2 | 0.6 / 1.2 |
*Cuiabá shown at home, Fortaleza shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cuiabá — last 5
WDLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Fortaleza — last 5
LWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cuiabá (home) | Fortaleza (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-5-2 in 10 (0.8 / 0.7 goals per game) | 2-3-5 in 10 (0.5 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 49% |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.97 vs 1.05):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Cuiabá or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Fortaleza or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Cuiabá clean sheet | 35% |
| Fortaleza clean sheet | 38% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fortaleza is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Despite playing away, Fortaleza edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cuiabá vs Fortaleza — FAQ
Who will win Cuiabá vs Fortaleza?
Our statistical model makes Fortaleza the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Cuiabá 33%, draw 31%, Fortaleza 36%.
Will both teams score in Cuiabá vs Fortaleza?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Cuiabá vs Fortaleza?
Expected goals are 0.97 for Cuiabá and 1.05 for Fortaleza — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cuiabá vs Fortaleza?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Cuiabá or draw is 63%.