Cuiabá vs Goiás Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 21:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Cuiabá vs Goiás
Model pick: Cuiabá (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.13 – 0.98
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cuiabá | Goiás |
|---|
| League position | #14 (29 pts) | #9 (32 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.8 / 0.7 | 1.0 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 27% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.2 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
*Cuiabá shown at home, Goiás shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cuiabá — last 5
LLDDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Goiás — last 5
WDLWL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cuiabá (home) | Goiás (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-6-2 in 11 (0.8 / 0.7 goals per game) | 3-4-5 in 12 (1.0 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 43% |
| Top scorer | – | Kadu (5) |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.13 vs 0.98):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Cuiabá or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Goiás or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Cuiabá clean sheet | 38% |
| Goiás clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cuiabá is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Cuiabá are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cuiabá vs Goiás — FAQ
Who will win Cuiabá vs Goiás?
Our statistical model makes Cuiabá the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Cuiabá 38%, draw 30%, Goiás 32%.
Will both teams score in Cuiabá vs Goiás?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Cuiabá vs Goiás?
Expected goals are 1.13 for Cuiabá and 0.98 for Goiás — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cuiabá vs Goiás?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Cuiabá or draw is 69%.