Cuiabá vs Operário PR Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Cuiabá vs Operário PR
Model pick: Cuiabá (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.35 – 0.82
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cuiabá | Operário PR |
|---|
| League position | #15 (26 pts) | #4 (35 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.8 / 0.7 | 1.3 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 27% | 40% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 2.2 |
*Cuiabá shown at home, Operário PR shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cuiabá — last 5
DLLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Operário PR — last 5
WDWLL
On the road: clean sheet 28% of the time; 36% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cuiabá (home) | Operário PR (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-6-2 in 11 (0.8 / 0.7 goals per game) | 4-2-4 in 10 (1.3 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 28% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 36% |
| Top scorer | – | Boschilia (9) |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.35 vs 0.82):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Cuiabá or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Operário PR or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 64% / 36% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Cuiabá clean sheet | 44% |
| Operário PR clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cuiabá is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Cuiabá are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cuiabá vs Operário PR — FAQ
Who will win Cuiabá vs Operário PR?
Our statistical model makes Cuiabá the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Cuiabá 44%, draw 30%, Operário PR 26%.
Will both teams score in Cuiabá vs Operário PR?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Cuiabá vs Operário PR?
Expected goals are 1.35 for Cuiabá and 0.82 for Operário PR — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cuiabá vs Operário PR?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Cuiabá or draw is 77%.