Curzon Ashton vs Guiseley Prediction & Preview
Non League Premier (England) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NON LEAGUE PREMIER (ENGLAND)
Curzon Ashton vs Guiseley
Model pick: Guiseley (42%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.09 – 2.24
Total goals: 4.3
Over 2.5: 70%
Both teams score: 67%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Curzon Ashton | Guiseley |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
*Curzon Ashton shown at home, Guiseley shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Curzon Ashton — last 5
DLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Guiseley — last 5
WDLWD
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Curzon Ashton (home) | Guiseley (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 43% |
Non League Premier (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.69
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Non League Premier (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.09 vs 2.24):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-2 (7%) |
| Double chance — Curzon Ashton or draw (1X) | 57% |
| Double chance — Guiseley or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 93% / 7% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 63% / 37% |
| Curzon Ashton clean sheet | 11% |
| Guiseley clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Guiseley is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, Guiseley edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 4.3, this shapes as an open game (70% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Curzon Ashton vs Guiseley — FAQ
Who will win Curzon Ashton vs Guiseley?
Our statistical model makes Guiseley the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Curzon Ashton 37%, draw 22%, Guiseley 42%.
Will both teams score in Curzon Ashton vs Guiseley?
The model gives a 67% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Curzon Ashton vs Guiseley?
Expected goals are 2.09 for Curzon Ashton and 2.24 for Guiseley — about 4.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Curzon Ashton vs Guiseley?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-2 (7%). Double chance for Curzon Ashton or draw is 57%.