Cusco vs Juan Pablo II Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Peru) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 23:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PERU)
Cusco vs Juan Pablo II
Model pick: Cusco (62%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.04 – 0.77
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cusco | Juan Pablo II |
|---|
| League position | #6 (30 pts) | #16 (17 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
*Cusco shown at home, Juan Pablo II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cusco — last 5
WWLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Juan Pablo II — last 5
LDWLD
On the road: clean sheet 10% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cusco (home) | Juan Pablo II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 55% |
| Top scorer | – | Martin Alaniz (4) |
Primera Division (Peru) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.65
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Primera Division (Peru) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.04 vs 0.77):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Cusco or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Juan Pablo II or draw (X2) | 33% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Cusco clean sheet | 46% |
| Juan Pablo II clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cusco is the model's most likely outcome at
62%. Cusco are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cusco vs Juan Pablo II — FAQ
Who will win Cusco vs Juan Pablo II?
Our statistical model makes Cusco the most likely result at 62%. Full probabilities: Cusco 62%, draw 22%, Juan Pablo II 16%.
Will both teams score in Cusco vs Juan Pablo II?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Cusco vs Juan Pablo II?
Expected goals are 2.04 for Cusco and 0.77 for Juan Pablo II — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cusco vs Juan Pablo II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (13%). Double chance for Cusco or draw is 87%.