Czarni Polaniec vs Korona Kielce II Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 09:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Czarni Polaniec vs Korona Kielce II
Model pick: Czarni Polaniec (57%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.17 – 1.11
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Czarni Polaniec | Korona Kielce II |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.8 | 1.8 / 3.4 |
*Czarni Polaniec shown at home, Korona Kielce II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Czarni Polaniec — last 5
LLWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Korona Kielce II — last 5
LDLLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Czarni Polaniec (home) | Korona Kielce II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 67%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.17 vs 1.11):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Czarni Polaniec or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — Korona Kielce II or draw (X2) | 39% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 41% / 59% |
| Czarni Polaniec clean sheet | 33% |
| Korona Kielce II clean sheet | 11% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Czarni Polaniec is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Czarni Polaniec are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Czarni Polaniec vs Korona Kielce II — FAQ
Who will win Czarni Polaniec vs Korona Kielce II?
Our statistical model makes Czarni Polaniec the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Czarni Polaniec 57%, draw 22%, Korona Kielce II 21%.
Will both teams score in Czarni Polaniec vs Korona Kielce II?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Czarni Polaniec vs Korona Kielce II?
Expected goals are 2.17 for Czarni Polaniec and 1.11 for Korona Kielce II — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Czarni Polaniec vs Korona Kielce II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Czarni Polaniec or draw is 81%.