D. Concepcion vs Audax Italiano Prediction & Preview
Liga De Primera (Chile) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 00:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA DE PRIMERA (CHILE)
D. Concepcion vs Audax Italiano
Model pick: D. Concepcion (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.43 – 0.77
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| D. Concepcion | Audax Italiano |
|---|
| League position | #7 (30 pts) | #13 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.1 | 0.6 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 45% | 11% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
*D. Concepcion shown at home, Audax Italiano shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
D. Concepcion — last 5
LWWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 56% of the time; 22% of home games go over 2.5.
Audax Italiano — last 5
LWDDD
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | D. Concepcion (home) | Audax Italiano (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-3 in 11 (1.5 / 1.1 goals per game) | 1-3-5 in 9 (0.6 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 56% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 22% | 55% |
| Top scorer | Joaquin Larrivey (4) | Franco Troyansky (4) |
Liga De Primera (Chile) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.65
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Liga De Primera (Chile) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.43 vs 0.77):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — D. Concepcion or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Audax Italiano or draw (X2) | 47% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| D. Concepcion clean sheet | 46% |
| Audax Italiano clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
D. Concepcion is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. D. Concepcion are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ D. Concepcion vs Audax Italiano — FAQ
Who will win D. Concepcion vs Audax Italiano?
Our statistical model makes D. Concepcion the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: D. Concepcion 46%, draw 28%, Audax Italiano 26%.
Will both teams score in D. Concepcion vs Audax Italiano?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in D. Concepcion vs Audax Italiano?
Expected goals are 1.43 for D. Concepcion and 0.77 for Audax Italiano — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in D. Concepcion vs Audax Italiano?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for D. Concepcion or draw is 80%.