D. Concepcion vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction & Preview
Liga De Primera (Chile) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA DE PRIMERA (CHILE)
D. Concepcion vs Coquimbo Unido
Model pick: Coquimbo Unido (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.12 – 0.9
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| D. Concepcion | Coquimbo Unido |
|---|
| League position | #7 (26 pts) | #8 (25 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.1 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 44% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.6 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
*D. Concepcion shown at home, Coquimbo Unido shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
D. Concepcion — last 5
WWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 62% of the time; 25% of home games go over 2.5.
Coquimbo Unido — last 5
DLWDD
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | D. Concepcion (home) | Coquimbo Unido (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-3 in 10 (1.5 / 1.1 goals per game) | 4-1-4 in 9 (1.4 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 62% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 43% |
| Top scorer | Joaquin Larrivey (4) | Guido Vadala (3) |
Liga De Primera (Chile) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.65
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Liga De Primera (Chile) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.12 vs 0.9):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — D. Concepcion or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Coquimbo Unido or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| D. Concepcion clean sheet | 41% |
| Coquimbo Unido clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Coquimbo Unido is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Despite playing away, Coquimbo Unido edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ D. Concepcion vs Coquimbo Unido — FAQ
Who will win D. Concepcion vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model makes Coquimbo Unido the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: D. Concepcion 34%, draw 29%, Coquimbo Unido 37%.
Will both teams score in D. Concepcion vs Coquimbo Unido?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in D. Concepcion vs Coquimbo Unido?
Expected goals are 1.12 for D. Concepcion and 0.9 for Coquimbo Unido — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in D. Concepcion vs Coquimbo Unido?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for D. Concepcion or draw is 71%.