Džiugas Telšiai vs Sūduva Prediction & Preview
A Lyga (Lithuania) · Aug 17, 2026 · kickoff 15:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A LYGA (LITHUANIA)
Džiugas Telšiai vs Sūduva
Model pick: Sūduva (43%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.9 – 1.26
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Džiugas Telšiai | Sūduva |
|---|
| League position | #2 (37 pts) | #3 (36 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.1 | 1.3 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 30% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.0 | 2.2 / 1.0 |
*Džiugas Telšiai shown at home, Sūduva shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Džiugas Telšiai — last 5
DWLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Sūduva — last 5
DLDWW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Džiugas Telšiai (home) | Sūduva (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-2-4 in 12 (1.5 / 1.1 goals per game) | 3-4-3 in 10 (1.3 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% |
A Lyga (Lithuania) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.64
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 47%
Use these A Lyga (Lithuania) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.9 vs 1.26):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (15%) |
| Double chance — Džiugas Telšiai or draw (1X) | 55% |
| Double chance — Sūduva or draw (X2) | 73% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 64% / 36% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Džiugas Telšiai clean sheet | 28% |
| Sūduva clean sheet | 41% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sūduva is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Despite playing away, Sūduva edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Džiugas Telšiai vs Sūduva — FAQ
Who will win Džiugas Telšiai vs Sūduva?
Our statistical model makes Sūduva the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Džiugas Telšiai 28%, draw 30%, Sūduva 43%.
Will both teams score in Džiugas Telšiai vs Sūduva?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Džiugas Telšiai vs Sūduva?
Expected goals are 0.9 for Džiugas Telšiai and 1.26 for Sūduva — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Džiugas Telšiai vs Sūduva?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (15%). Double chance for Džiugas Telšiai or draw is 55%.