Daegu vs Suwon Prediction & Preview
K League 2 (South Korea) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 10:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K LEAGUE 2 (SOUTH KOREA)
Daegu vs Suwon
Model pick: Daegu (46%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.7 – 2.51
Total goals: 5.2
Over 2.5: 77%
Both teams score: 67%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Daegu | Suwon |
|---|
| League position | #4 (32 pts) | #5 (30 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.1 / 1.3 | 2.0 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 44% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.4 | 3.0 / 1.6 |
*Daegu shown at home, Suwon shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Daegu — last 5
DWWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Suwon — last 5
LWWWD
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Daegu (home) | Suwon (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-1-2 in 9 (2.1 / 1.3 goals per game) | 4-2-3 in 9 (2.0 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 47% |
K League 2 (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.51
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 51%
Use these K League 2 (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.7 vs 2.51):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-2 (6%) |
| Double chance — Daegu or draw (1X) | 62% |
| Double chance — Suwon or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 97% / 3% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Daegu clean sheet | 8% |
| Suwon clean sheet | 7% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Daegu is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Daegu are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 5.2, this shapes as an open game (77% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Daegu vs Suwon — FAQ
Who will win Daegu vs Suwon?
Our statistical model makes Daegu the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Daegu 46%, draw 23%, Suwon 30%.
Will both teams score in Daegu vs Suwon?
The model gives a 67% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Daegu vs Suwon?
Expected goals are 2.7 for Daegu and 2.51 for Suwon — about 5.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Daegu vs Suwon?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-2 (6%). Double chance for Daegu or draw is 62%.