Daejeon Hana Citizen vs Ulsan Prediction & Preview
K-League (South Korea) · Aug 26, 2026 · kickoff 10:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K-LEAGUE (SOUTH KOREA)
Daejeon Hana Citizen vs Ulsan
Model pick: Daejeon Hana Citizen (41%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.48 – 1.26
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Daejeon Hana Citizen | Ulsan |
|---|
| League position | #10 (26 pts) | #2 (37 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.8 / 1.3 | 1.5 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 9% | 55% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 2.0 | 2.0 / 1.2 |
*Daejeon Hana Citizen shown at home, Ulsan shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Daejeon Hana Citizen — last 5
LWWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Ulsan — last 5
WLWWL
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Daejeon Hana Citizen (home) | Ulsan (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-5-5 in 11 (0.8 / 1.3 goals per game) | 6-3-2 in 11 (1.5 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 48% |
| Top scorer | Jae-Hee Jeong (2) | – |
K-League (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.61
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 55%
Use these K-League (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.48 vs 1.26):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Daejeon Hana Citizen or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Ulsan or draw (X2) | 58% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen clean sheet | 28% |
| Ulsan clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Daejeon Hana Citizen is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Daejeon Hana Citizen are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Daejeon Hana Citizen vs Ulsan — FAQ
Who will win Daejeon Hana Citizen vs Ulsan?
Our statistical model makes Daejeon Hana Citizen the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Daejeon Hana Citizen 41%, draw 26%, Ulsan 33%.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Hana Citizen vs Ulsan?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Daejeon Hana Citizen vs Ulsan?
Expected goals are 1.48 for Daejeon Hana Citizen and 1.26 for Ulsan — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Daejeon Hana Citizen vs Ulsan?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Daejeon Hana Citizen or draw is 68%.