Daejeon Korail vs Yangpyeong Prediction & Preview
K League 3 (South Korea) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K LEAGUE 3 (SOUTH KOREA)
Daejeon Korail vs Yangpyeong
Model pick: Daejeon Korail (47%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.55 – 1.01
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Daejeon Korail | Yangpyeong |
|---|
| League position | #4 (32 pts) | #12 (17 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 57% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.4 | 2.6 / 3.2 |
*Daejeon Korail shown at home, Yangpyeong shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Daejeon Korail — last 5
WLLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Yangpyeong — last 5
LWLLD
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Daejeon Korail (home) | Yangpyeong (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-0-3 in 7 (1.6 / 0.6 goals per game) | 0-7-4 in 11 (0.7 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 36% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 41% |
K League 3 (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.42
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%
Use these K League 3 (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.55 vs 1.01):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Daejeon Korail or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — Yangpyeong or draw (X2) | 50% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Daejeon Korail clean sheet | 36% |
| Yangpyeong clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Daejeon Korail is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Daejeon Korail are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Daejeon Korail vs Yangpyeong — FAQ
Who will win Daejeon Korail vs Yangpyeong?
Our statistical model makes Daejeon Korail the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Daejeon Korail 47%, draw 27%, Yangpyeong 26%.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Korail vs Yangpyeong?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Daejeon Korail vs Yangpyeong?
Expected goals are 1.55 for Daejeon Korail and 1.01 for Yangpyeong — about 2.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Daejeon Korail vs Yangpyeong?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Daejeon Korail or draw is 75%.