Dallas vs Sporting KC Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 00:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
Dallas vs Sporting KC
Model pick: Dallas (61%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.93 – 1.08
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Dallas | Sporting KC |
|---|
| League position | #5 (25 pts) | #15 (11 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.8 | 0.9 / 3.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 3.0 | 0.4 / 2.0 |
*Dallas shown at home, Sporting KC shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Dallas — last 5
LWWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
Sporting KC — last 5
LLDLL
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Dallas (home) | Sporting KC (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-4-2 in 9 (2.0 / 1.8 goals per game) | 2-0-6 in 8 (0.9 / 3.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 56% |
| Top scorer | Petar Musa (16) | Nicolas Mercau (14) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.93 vs 1.08):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Dallas or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Sporting KC or draw (X2) | 43% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Dallas clean sheet | 34% |
| Sporting KC clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Dallas is the model's most likely outcome at
61%. Dallas are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Dallas vs Sporting KC — FAQ
Who will win Dallas vs Sporting KC?
Our statistical model makes Dallas the most likely result at 61%. Full probabilities: Dallas 61%, draw 21%, Sporting KC 18%.
Will both teams score in Dallas vs Sporting KC?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Dallas vs Sporting KC?
Expected goals are 1.93 for Dallas and 1.08 for Sporting KC — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Dallas vs Sporting KC?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Dallas or draw is 79%.