Danubio vs Peñarol Prediction & Preview
Primera (Uruguay) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA (URUGUAY)
Danubio vs Peñarol
Model pick: Peñarol (48%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.69 – 1.28
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 40%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Danubio | Peñarol |
|---|
| League position | #15 (24 pts) | #4 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 0.7 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 0.8 | 2.2 / 0.4 |
*Danubio shown at home, Peñarol shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Danubio — last 5
LDDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 34% of home games go over 2.5.
Peñarol — last 5
WWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 40% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Danubio (home) | Peñarol (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 0-2-1 in 3 (0.7 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 42% |
| Top scorer | – | Matias Arezo (2) |
Primera (Uruguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera (Uruguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.69 vs 1.28):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (18%) |
| Double chance — Danubio or draw (1X) | 49% |
| Double chance — Peñarol or draw (X2) | 80% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 59% / 41% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 14% / 86% |
| Danubio clean sheet | 28% |
| Peñarol clean sheet | 50% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Peñarol is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Despite playing away, Peñarol edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (60% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Danubio vs Peñarol — FAQ
Who will win Danubio vs Peñarol?
Our statistical model makes Peñarol the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Danubio 22%, draw 30%, Peñarol 48%.
Will both teams score in Danubio vs Peñarol?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Danubio vs Peñarol?
Expected goals are 0.69 for Danubio and 1.28 for Peñarol — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Danubio vs Peñarol?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (18%). Double chance for Danubio or draw is 49%.