De Graafschap vs Almere City Prediction & Preview
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EERSTE DIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
De Graafschap vs Almere City
Model pick: De Graafschap (45%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.92 – 1.54
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 61%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| De Graafschap | Almere City |
|---|
| League position | #1 (0 pts) | #9 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 3.0 | 2.0 / 1.4 |
*De Graafschap shown at home, Almere City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
De Graafschap — last 5
WLDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Almere City — last 5
WLDWW
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 64% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | De Graafschap (home) | Almere City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 64% |
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.14
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.92 vs 1.54):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — De Graafschap or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Almere City or draw (X2) | 53% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 86% / 14% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 45% / 55% |
| De Graafschap clean sheet | 21% |
| Almere City clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
De Graafschap is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. De Graafschap are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (61% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ De Graafschap vs Almere City — FAQ
Who will win De Graafschap vs Almere City?
Our statistical model makes De Graafschap the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: De Graafschap 45%, draw 24%, Almere City 32%.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Almere City?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in De Graafschap vs Almere City?
Expected goals are 1.92 for De Graafschap and 1.54 for Almere City — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in De Graafschap vs Almere City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (9%). Double chance for De Graafschap or draw is 69%.