De Graafschap vs AZ II Prediction & Preview
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Aug 17, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EERSTE DIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
De Graafschap vs AZ II
Model pick: De Graafschap (56%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.28 – 1.29
Total goals: 3.6
Over 2.5: 62%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| De Graafschap | AZ II |
|---|
| League position | #1 (0 pts) | #19 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 3.2 | 3.4 / 1.0 |
*De Graafschap shown at home, AZ II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
De Graafschap — last 5
LLWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
AZ II — last 5
WWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 12% of the time; 66% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | De Graafschap (home) | AZ II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 12% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 66% |
| Top scorer | – | Jasper Hartog (8) |
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.14
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.28 vs 1.29):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — De Graafschap or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — AZ II or draw (X2) | 40% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 87% / 13% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 48% / 52% |
| De Graafschap clean sheet | 28% |
| AZ II clean sheet | 10% |
🎯 Our Verdict
De Graafschap is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. De Graafschap are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.6, this shapes as an open game (62% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ De Graafschap vs AZ II — FAQ
Who will win De Graafschap vs AZ II?
Our statistical model makes De Graafschap the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: De Graafschap 56%, draw 22%, AZ II 23%.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs AZ II?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in De Graafschap vs AZ II?
Expected goals are 2.28 for De Graafschap and 1.29 for AZ II — about 3.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in De Graafschap vs AZ II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (9%). Double chance for De Graafschap or draw is 79%.