Debrecen vs MTK Prediction & Preview
NB I (Hungary) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NB I (HUNGARY)
Debrecen vs MTK
Model pick: Debrecen (48%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.91 – 1.35
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Debrecen | MTK |
|---|
| League position | #10 (4 pts) | #3 (8 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.7 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.6 | 2.2 / 1.6 |
*Debrecen shown at home, MTK shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Debrecen — last 5
LLWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
MTK — last 5
WDLDW
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Debrecen (home) | MTK (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-1 in 3 (0.7 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-2-0 in 2 (2.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 57% |
NB I (Hungary) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.82
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 56%
Use these NB I (Hungary) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.91 vs 1.35):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Debrecen or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — MTK or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 41% / 59% |
| Debrecen clean sheet | 26% |
| MTK clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Debrecen is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Debrecen are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Debrecen vs MTK — FAQ
Who will win Debrecen vs MTK?
Our statistical model makes Debrecen the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Debrecen 48%, draw 24%, MTK 28%.
Will both teams score in Debrecen vs MTK?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Debrecen vs MTK?
Expected goals are 1.91 for Debrecen and 1.35 for MTK — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Debrecen vs MTK?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Debrecen or draw is 73%.