Degerfors vs Djurgården Prediction & Preview
Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ALLSVENSKAN (SWEDEN)
Degerfors vs Djurgården
Model pick: Djurgården (52%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.99 – 1.68
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Degerfors | Djurgården |
|---|
| League position | #14 (10 pts) | #5 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.9 / 1.9 | 2.0 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 14% | 60% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.8 | 2.0 / 0.6 |
*Degerfors shown at home, Djurgården shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Degerfors — last 5
DWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Djurgården — last 5
DWWWD
On the road: clean sheet 34% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Degerfors (home) | Djurgården (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-2-4 in 7 (0.9 / 1.9 goals per game) | 3-1-1 in 5 (2.0 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 34% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 47% |
Allsvenskan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Allsvenskan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.99 vs 1.68):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Degerfors or draw (1X) | 46% |
| Double chance — Djurgården or draw (X2) | 78% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Degerfors clean sheet | 19% |
| Djurgården clean sheet | 37% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Djurgården is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Despite playing away, Djurgården edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Degerfors vs Djurgården — FAQ
Who will win Degerfors vs Djurgården?
Our statistical model makes Djurgården the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Degerfors 22%, draw 25%, Djurgården 52%.
Will both teams score in Degerfors vs Djurgården?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Degerfors vs Djurgården?
Expected goals are 0.99 for Degerfors and 1.68 for Djurgården — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Degerfors vs Djurgården?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (12%). Double chance for Degerfors or draw is 46%.