Degerfors vs IFK Göteborg Prediction & Preview
Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ALLSVENSKAN (SWEDEN)
Degerfors vs IFK Göteborg
Model pick: IFK Göteborg (40%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.25 – 1.42
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Degerfors | IFK Göteborg |
|---|
| League position | #14 (13 pts) | #10 (19 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.8 / 1.8 | 1.4 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 12% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 2.0 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
*Degerfors shown at home, IFK Göteborg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Degerfors — last 5
LLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
IFK Göteborg — last 5
LWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Degerfors (home) | IFK Göteborg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-2-5 in 8 (0.8 / 1.8 goals per game) | 2-2-4 in 8 (1.4 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% |
Allsvenskan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Allsvenskan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.25 vs 1.42):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Degerfors or draw (1X) | 59% |
| Double chance — IFK Göteborg or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Degerfors clean sheet | 24% |
| IFK Göteborg clean sheet | 29% |
🎯 Our Verdict
IFK Göteborg is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, IFK Göteborg edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Degerfors vs IFK Göteborg — FAQ
Who will win Degerfors vs IFK Göteborg?
Our statistical model makes IFK Göteborg the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Degerfors 32%, draw 28%, IFK Göteborg 40%.
Will both teams score in Degerfors vs IFK Göteborg?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Degerfors vs IFK Göteborg?
Expected goals are 1.25 for Degerfors and 1.42 for IFK Göteborg — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Degerfors vs IFK Göteborg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Degerfors or draw is 59%.