Delfin vs Aucas Prediction & Preview
Liga Pro (Ecuador) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 20:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA PRO (ECUADOR)
Delfin vs Aucas
Model pick: Aucas (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.2 – 1.28
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Delfin | Aucas |
|---|
| League position | #15 (24 pts) | #3 (41 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.8 / 0.7 | 1.0 / 0.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 42% | 42% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
*Delfin shown at home, Aucas shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Delfin — last 5
WLLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Aucas — last 5
LWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Delfin (home) | Aucas (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-4 in 12 (0.8 / 0.7 goals per game) | 5-4-3 in 12 (1.0 / 0.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Top scorer | Xavier Ushina Goyes Kevin (3) | Bruno Miranda (6) |
Liga Pro (Ecuador) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Liga Pro (Ecuador) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.2 vs 1.28):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Delfin or draw (1X) | 62% |
| Double chance — Aucas or draw (X2) | 65% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Delfin clean sheet | 28% |
| Aucas clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Aucas is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Aucas edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Delfin vs Aucas — FAQ
Who will win Delfin vs Aucas?
Our statistical model makes Aucas the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Delfin 34%, draw 28%, Aucas 38%.
Will both teams score in Delfin vs Aucas?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Delfin vs Aucas?
Expected goals are 1.2 for Delfin and 1.28 for Aucas — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Delfin vs Aucas?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Delfin or draw is 62%.