Delfin vs Leones del Norte Prediction & Preview
Liga Pro (Ecuador) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA PRO (ECUADOR)
Delfin vs Leones del Norte
Model pick: Leones del Norte (43%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.93 – 1.29
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Delfin | Leones del Norte |
|---|
| League position | #15 (23 pts) | #7 (28 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 20% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1.4 / 0.6 |
*Delfin shown at home, Leones del Norte shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Delfin — last 5
DLWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Leones del Norte — last 5
WWDWD
On the road: clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Delfin (home) | Leones del Norte (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-3 in 10 (0.8 / 0.6 goals per game) | 2-3-5 in 10 (0.8 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Top scorer | Xavier Ushina Goyes Kevin (3) | – |
Liga Pro (Ecuador) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Liga Pro (Ecuador) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.93 vs 1.29):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Delfin or draw (1X) | 55% |
| Double chance — Leones del Norte or draw (X2) | 73% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| Delfin clean sheet | 28% |
| Leones del Norte clean sheet | 39% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Leones del Norte is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Despite playing away, Leones del Norte edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Delfin vs Leones del Norte — FAQ
Who will win Delfin vs Leones del Norte?
Our statistical model makes Leones del Norte the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Delfin 28%, draw 29%, Leones del Norte 43%.
Will both teams score in Delfin vs Leones del Norte?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Delfin vs Leones del Norte?
Expected goals are 0.93 for Delfin and 1.29 for Leones del Norte — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Delfin vs Leones del Norte?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Delfin or draw is 55%.