Delfin vs Orense Prediction & Preview
Liga Pro (Ecuador) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 21:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA PRO (ECUADOR)
Delfin vs Orense
Model pick: Delfin (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.2 – 0.95
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Delfin | Orense |
|---|
| League position | #15 (23 pts) | #13 (26 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.7 / 0.6 | 1.0 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 45% | 27% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 2.2 |
*Delfin shown at home, Orense shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Delfin — last 5
DLWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Orense — last 5
LLWLL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 36% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Delfin (home) | Orense (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-4 in 11 (0.7 / 0.6 goals per game) | 3-2-6 in 11 (1.0 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 36% |
| Top scorer | Xavier Ushina Goyes Kevin (3) | Agustin Herrera (4) |
Liga Pro (Ecuador) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Liga Pro (Ecuador) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.2 vs 0.95):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Delfin or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Orense or draw (X2) | 58% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 63% / 37% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Delfin clean sheet | 39% |
| Orense clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Delfin is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Delfin are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Delfin vs Orense — FAQ
Who will win Delfin vs Orense?
Our statistical model makes Delfin the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Delfin 40%, draw 30%, Orense 30%.
Will both teams score in Delfin vs Orense?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Delfin vs Orense?
Expected goals are 1.2 for Delfin and 0.95 for Orense — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Delfin vs Orense?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Delfin or draw is 71%.