Den Bosch vs Almere City Prediction & Preview
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EERSTE DIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
Den Bosch vs Almere City
Model pick: Almere City (43%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.54 – 1.85
Total goals: 3.4
Over 2.5: 60%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Den Bosch | Almere City |
|---|
| League position | #3 (0 pts) | #9 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.0 | 2.8 / 2.4 |
*Den Bosch shown at home, Almere City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Den Bosch — last 5
LWDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
Almere City — last 5
LWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 64% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Den Bosch (home) | Almere City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 64% |
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.14
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.54 vs 1.85):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Den Bosch or draw (1X) | 55% |
| Double chance — Almere City or draw (X2) | 68% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 44% / 56% |
| Den Bosch clean sheet | 16% |
| Almere City clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Almere City is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Despite playing away, Almere City edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.4, this shapes as an open game (60% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Den Bosch vs Almere City — FAQ
Who will win Den Bosch vs Almere City?
Our statistical model makes Almere City the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Den Bosch 33%, draw 24%, Almere City 43%.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Almere City?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Den Bosch vs Almere City?
Expected goals are 1.54 for Den Bosch and 1.85 for Almere City — about 3.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Den Bosch vs Almere City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Den Bosch or draw is 55%.