Den Bosch vs Vitesse Prediction & Preview
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EERSTE DIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
Den Bosch vs Vitesse
Model pick: Den Bosch (40%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.66 – 1.53
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Den Bosch | Vitesse |
|---|
| League position | #3 (0 pts) | #15 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.4 | 1.0 / 1.4 |
*Den Bosch shown at home, Vitesse shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Den Bosch — last 5
WWDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 61% of home games go over 2.5.
Vitesse — last 5
DLDWL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 61% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Den Bosch (home) | Vitesse (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% |
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.14
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.66 vs 1.53):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Den Bosch or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Vitesse or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| Den Bosch clean sheet | 22% |
| Vitesse clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Den Bosch is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Den Bosch are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Den Bosch vs Vitesse — FAQ
Who will win Den Bosch vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model makes Den Bosch the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Den Bosch 40%, draw 25%, Vitesse 35%.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Vitesse?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Den Bosch vs Vitesse?
Expected goals are 1.66 for Den Bosch and 1.53 for Vitesse — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Den Bosch vs Vitesse?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Den Bosch or draw is 64%.