Dender vs Beerschot-Wilrijk Prediction & Preview
Second Division (Belgium) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SECOND DIVISION (BELGIUM)
Dender vs Beerschot-Wilrijk
Model pick: Beerschot-Wilrijk (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.16 – 1.29
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Dender | Beerschot-Wilrijk |
|---|
| League position | #16 (19 pts) | #1 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.0 / 2.2 | 2.6 / 1.0 |
*Dender shown at home, Beerschot-Wilrijk shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Dender — last 5
DLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Beerschot-Wilrijk — last 5
WWLWW
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Dender (home) | Beerschot-Wilrijk (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 60% |
| Top scorer | Roman Kvet (5) | Ensar Brahic (2) |
Second Division (Belgium) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.8
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 56%
Use these Second Division (Belgium) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.16 vs 1.29):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Dender or draw (1X) | 61% |
| Double chance — Beerschot-Wilrijk or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Dender clean sheet | 28% |
| Beerschot-Wilrijk clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Beerschot-Wilrijk is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Beerschot-Wilrijk edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Dender vs Beerschot-Wilrijk — FAQ
Who will win Dender vs Beerschot-Wilrijk?
Our statistical model makes Beerschot-Wilrijk the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Dender 33%, draw 28%, Beerschot-Wilrijk 38%.
Will both teams score in Dender vs Beerschot-Wilrijk?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Dender vs Beerschot-Wilrijk?
Expected goals are 1.16 for Dender and 1.29 for Beerschot-Wilrijk — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Dender vs Beerschot-Wilrijk?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Dender or draw is 61%.