Deportes Tolima vs Junior Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Colombia) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 01:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COLOMBIA)
Deportes Tolima vs Junior
Model pick: Deportes Tolima (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.4 – 0.9
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Deportes Tolima | Junior |
|---|
| League position | #3 (37 pts) | #2 (44 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 |
*Deportes Tolima shown at home, Junior shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Deportes Tolima — last 5
DWLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Junior — last 5
WLWWD
On the road: clean sheet 28% of the time; 37% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Deportes Tolima (home) | Junior (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 28% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 37% |
| Top scorer | – | Luis Muriel (3) |
Primera Division (Colombia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.26
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Primera Division (Colombia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.4 vs 0.9):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Deportes Tolima or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — Junior or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Deportes Tolima clean sheet | 41% |
| Junior clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportes Tolima is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Deportes Tolima are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Deportes Tolima vs Junior — FAQ
Who will win Deportes Tolima vs Junior?
Our statistical model makes Deportes Tolima the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Deportes Tolima 46%, draw 28%, Junior 26%.
Will both teams score in Deportes Tolima vs Junior?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Deportes Tolima vs Junior?
Expected goals are 1.4 for Deportes Tolima and 0.9 for Junior — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Deportes Tolima vs Junior?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Deportes Tolima or draw is 76%.