Deportivo Cali vs La Equidad Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Colombia) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 23:10 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COLOMBIA)
Deportivo Cali vs La Equidad
Model pick: Deportivo Cali (53%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.43 – 0.82
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Deportivo Cali | La Equidad |
|---|
| League position | #9 (27 pts) | #8 (28 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 0.4 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
*Deportivo Cali shown at home, La Equidad shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Deportivo Cali — last 5
DWWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 38% of home games go over 2.5.
La Equidad — last 5
WLWWL
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 37% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Deportivo Cali (home) | La Equidad (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 37% |
| Top scorer | Yeison Guzman (8) | Fabricio Sanguinetti (6) |
Primera Division (Colombia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.27
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Primera Division (Colombia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.43 vs 0.82):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Deportivo Cali or draw (1X) | 78% |
| Double chance — La Equidad or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Deportivo Cali clean sheet | 44% |
| La Equidad clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportivo Cali is the model's most likely outcome at
53%. Deportivo Cali are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Deportivo Cali vs La Equidad — FAQ
Who will win Deportivo Cali vs La Equidad?
Our statistical model makes Deportivo Cali the most likely result at 53%. Full probabilities: Deportivo Cali 53%, draw 27%, La Equidad 19%.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Cali vs La Equidad?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Deportivo Cali vs La Equidad?
Expected goals are 1.43 for Deportivo Cali and 0.82 for La Equidad — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo Cali vs La Equidad?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Deportivo Cali or draw is 78%.