Deportivo Cali vs Rionegro Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Colombia) · Aug 06, 2026 · kickoff 23:05 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COLOMBIA)
Deportivo Cali vs Rionegro
Model pick: Deportivo Cali (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.27 – 1.1
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Deportivo Cali | Rionegro |
|---|
| League position | #9 (27 pts) | #12 (26 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.6 | 2.0 / 0.8 |
*Deportivo Cali shown at home, Rionegro shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Deportivo Cali — last 5
LLDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 38% of home games go over 2.5.
Rionegro — last 5
WWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Deportivo Cali (home) | Rionegro (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 41% |
| Top scorer | Yeison Guzman (8) | – |
Primera Division (Colombia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.26
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Primera Division (Colombia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.27 vs 1.1):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Deportivo Cali or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Rionegro or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Deportivo Cali clean sheet | 33% |
| Rionegro clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportivo Cali is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Deportivo Cali are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Deportivo Cali vs Rionegro — FAQ
Who will win Deportivo Cali vs Rionegro?
Our statistical model makes Deportivo Cali the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Deportivo Cali 39%, draw 29%, Rionegro 32%.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Cali vs Rionegro?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Deportivo Cali vs Rionegro?
Expected goals are 1.27 for Deportivo Cali and 1.1 for Rionegro — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo Cali vs Rionegro?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Deportivo Cali or draw is 68%.