Deportivo Cuenca vs Guayaquil City Prediction & Preview
Liga Pro (Ecuador) · Sep 02, 2026 · kickoff 21:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA PRO (ECUADOR)
Deportivo Cuenca vs Guayaquil City
Model pick: Deportivo Cuenca (47%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.32 – 0.79
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Deportivo Cuenca | Guayaquil City |
|---|
| League position | #11 (32 pts) | #10 (33 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.3 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 31% | 31% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
*Deportivo Cuenca shown at home, Guayaquil City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Deportivo Cuenca — last 5
WLLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Guayaquil City — last 5
DLDDW
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Deportivo Cuenca (home) | Guayaquil City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-4-5 in 13 (1.1 / 1.3 goals per game) | 4-3-6 in 13 (1.1 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% |
| Top scorer | Matias Klimowicz (4) | – |
Liga Pro (Ecuador) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Liga Pro (Ecuador) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.32 vs 0.79):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Deportivo Cuenca or draw (1X) | 78% |
| Double chance — Guayaquil City or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Deportivo Cuenca clean sheet | 45% |
| Guayaquil City clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportivo Cuenca is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Deportivo Cuenca are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Deportivo Cuenca vs Guayaquil City — FAQ
Who will win Deportivo Cuenca vs Guayaquil City?
Our statistical model makes Deportivo Cuenca the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Deportivo Cuenca 47%, draw 29%, Guayaquil City 24%.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Cuenca vs Guayaquil City?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Deportivo Cuenca vs Guayaquil City?
Expected goals are 1.32 for Deportivo Cuenca and 0.79 for Guayaquil City — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo Cuenca vs Guayaquil City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for Deportivo Cuenca or draw is 78%.