Deportivo Cuenca vs Mushuc Runa Prediction & Preview
Liga Pro (Ecuador) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 00:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA PRO (ECUADOR)
Deportivo Cuenca vs Mushuc Runa
Model pick: Deportivo Cuenca (47%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.53 – 1.01
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Deportivo Cuenca | Mushuc Runa |
|---|
| League position | #10 (31 pts) | #9 (32 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.4 | 1.5 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.8 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
*Deportivo Cuenca shown at home, Mushuc Runa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Deportivo Cuenca — last 5
LLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
Mushuc Runa — last 5
DLWWD
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Deportivo Cuenca (home) | Mushuc Runa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-3-5 in 12 (1.2 / 1.4 goals per game) | 3-3-6 in 12 (1.5 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 56% |
| Top scorer | Matias Klimowicz (4) | Edmundo Carrillo Morales Ronie (9) |
Liga Pro (Ecuador) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Liga Pro (Ecuador) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.53 vs 1.01):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Deportivo Cuenca or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — Mushuc Runa or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Deportivo Cuenca clean sheet | 36% |
| Mushuc Runa clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportivo Cuenca is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Deportivo Cuenca are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Deportivo Cuenca vs Mushuc Runa — FAQ
Who will win Deportivo Cuenca vs Mushuc Runa?
Our statistical model makes Deportivo Cuenca the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Deportivo Cuenca 47%, draw 27%, Mushuc Runa 26%.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Cuenca vs Mushuc Runa?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Deportivo Cuenca vs Mushuc Runa?
Expected goals are 1.53 for Deportivo Cuenca and 1.01 for Mushuc Runa — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo Cuenca vs Mushuc Runa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Deportivo Cuenca or draw is 75%.