Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atlético Grau Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Peru) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PERU)
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atlético Grau
Model pick: Deportivo Garcilaso (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.33 – 0.82
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Deportivo Garcilaso | Atlético Grau |
|---|
| League position | #7 (26 pts) | #13 (19 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.2 | 1.2 / 1.0 |
*Deportivo Garcilaso shown at home, Atlético Grau shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Deportivo Garcilaso — last 5
WWDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Atlético Grau — last 5
LDWWL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Deportivo Garcilaso (home) | Atlético Grau (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 42% |
| Top scorer | Christopher Olivares (7) | – |
Primera Division (Peru) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Primera Division (Peru) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.33 vs 0.82):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Deportivo Garcilaso or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Atlético Grau or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 63% / 37% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Deportivo Garcilaso clean sheet | 44% |
| Atlético Grau clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportivo Garcilaso is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Deportivo Garcilaso are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atlético Grau — FAQ
Who will win Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atlético Grau?
Our statistical model makes Deportivo Garcilaso the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Deportivo Garcilaso 46%, draw 29%, Atlético Grau 25%.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atlético Grau?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atlético Grau?
Expected goals are 1.33 for Deportivo Garcilaso and 0.82 for Atlético Grau — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atlético Grau?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Deportivo Garcilaso or draw is 77%.