Deportivo La Coruña vs Valencia Prediction & Preview
LaLiga · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LALIGA
Deportivo La Coruña vs Valencia
Model pick: Valencia (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.9 – 1.47
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Deportivo La Coruña | Valencia |
|---|
| League position | #10 (2 pts) | #12 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
*Deportivo La Coruña shown at home, Valencia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Deportivo La Coruña — last 5
DWLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Valencia — last 5
DLLWD
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Deportivo La Coruña (home) | Valencia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 50% |
LaLiga — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.62
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 52%
Use these LaLiga averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.9 vs 1.47):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Deportivo La Coruña or draw (1X) | 50% |
| Double chance — Valencia or draw (X2) | 77% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Deportivo La Coruña clean sheet | 23% |
| Valencia clean sheet | 41% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Valencia is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Valencia edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Deportivo La Coruña vs Valencia — FAQ
Who will win Deportivo La Coruña vs Valencia?
Our statistical model makes Valencia the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Deportivo La Coruña 32%, draw 29%, Valencia 38%.
Will both teams score in Deportivo La Coruña vs Valencia?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Deportivo La Coruña vs Valencia?
Expected goals are 0.9 for Deportivo La Coruña and 1.47 for Valencia — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo La Coruña vs Valencia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Deportivo La Coruña or draw is 50%.