Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes de Mérida Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Venezuela) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (VENEZUELA)
Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes de Mérida
Model pick: Deportivo La Guaira (59%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.02 – 0.9
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Deportivo La Guaira | Estudiantes de Mérida |
|---|
| League position | #4 (3 pts) | #6 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.7 | 1.4 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 43% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.0 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
*Deportivo La Guaira shown at home, Estudiantes de Mérida shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Deportivo La Guaira — last 5
WLWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Estudiantes de Mérida — last 5
DWLWD
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Deportivo La Guaira (home) | Estudiantes de Mérida (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-2-1 in 3 (1.0 / 1.7 goals per game) | 3-1-3 in 7 (1.4 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% |
| Top scorer | Flabian Londono (2) | – |
Primera Division (Venezuela) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.46
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera Division (Venezuela) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.02 vs 0.9):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — Deportivo La Guaira or draw (1X) | 84% |
| Double chance — Estudiantes de Mérida or draw (X2) | 37% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Deportivo La Guaira clean sheet | 41% |
| Estudiantes de Mérida clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportivo La Guaira is the model's most likely outcome at
59%. Deportivo La Guaira are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes de Mérida — FAQ
Who will win Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes de Mérida?
Our statistical model makes Deportivo La Guaira the most likely result at 59%. Full probabilities: Deportivo La Guaira 59%, draw 23%, Estudiantes de Mérida 18%.
Will both teams score in Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes de Mérida?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes de Mérida?
Expected goals are 2.02 for Deportivo La Guaira and 0.9 for Estudiantes de Mérida — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes de Mérida?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (11%). Double chance for Deportivo La Guaira or draw is 84%.