Deportivo La Guaira vs Zamora Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Venezuela) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 22:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (VENEZUELA)
Deportivo La Guaira vs Zamora
Model pick: Deportivo La Guaira (57%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.65 – 0.77
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Deportivo La Guaira | Zamora |
|---|
| League position | #4 (3 pts) | #9 (17 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.7 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 29% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.2 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
*Deportivo La Guaira shown at home, Zamora shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Deportivo La Guaira — last 5
LDWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Zamora — last 5
WLWLL
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Deportivo La Guaira (home) | Zamora (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-2-1 in 3 (1.0 / 1.7 goals per game) | 2-2-3 in 7 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 46% |
| Top scorer | Flabian Londono (2) | – |
Primera Division (Venezuela) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera Division (Venezuela) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.65 vs 0.77):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Deportivo La Guaira or draw (1X) | 83% |
| Double chance — Zamora or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Deportivo La Guaira clean sheet | 46% |
| Zamora clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportivo La Guaira is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Deportivo La Guaira are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Deportivo La Guaira vs Zamora — FAQ
Who will win Deportivo La Guaira vs Zamora?
Our statistical model makes Deportivo La Guaira the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Deportivo La Guaira 57%, draw 25%, Zamora 18%.
Will both teams score in Deportivo La Guaira vs Zamora?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Deportivo La Guaira vs Zamora?
Expected goals are 1.65 for Deportivo La Guaira and 0.77 for Zamora — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo La Guaira vs Zamora?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Deportivo La Guaira or draw is 83%.