Deportivo Maipu vs Patronato Prediction & Preview
Argentino B (Argentina) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ARGENTINO B (ARGENTINA)
Deportivo Maipu vs Patronato
Model pick: Deportivo Maipu (77%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 3.02 – 0.77
Total goals: 3.8
Over 2.5: 64%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Deportivo Maipu | Patronato |
|---|
| League position | #8 (38 pts) | #16 (28 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 62% | 8% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.2 | 2.0 / 2.2 |
*Deportivo Maipu shown at home, Patronato shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Deportivo Maipu — last 5
LWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 75% of the time; 25% of home games go over 2.5.
Patronato — last 5
DDLDW
On the road: clean sheet 9% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Deportivo Maipu (home) | Patronato (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 8-2-3 in 13 (1.3 / 0.7 goals per game) | 1-7-5 in 13 (0.5 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 75% | 9% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 45% |
Argentino B (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.11
Home wins: 52%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 19%
Over 2.5: 36%
BTTS: 43%
Use these Argentino B (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.02 vs 0.77):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-0 (10%) |
| Double chance — Deportivo Maipu or draw (1X) | 94% |
| Double chance — Patronato or draw (X2) | 18% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 88% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 89% / 11% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 52% / 48% |
| Deportivo Maipu clean sheet | 46% |
| Patronato clean sheet | 5% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportivo Maipu is the model's most likely outcome at
77%. Deportivo Maipu are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.8, this shapes as an open game (64% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Deportivo Maipu vs Patronato — FAQ
Who will win Deportivo Maipu vs Patronato?
Our statistical model makes Deportivo Maipu the most likely result at 77%. Full probabilities: Deportivo Maipu 77%, draw 14%, Patronato 9%.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Maipu vs Patronato?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Deportivo Maipu vs Patronato?
Expected goals are 3.02 for Deportivo Maipu and 0.77 for Patronato — about 3.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo Maipu vs Patronato?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-0 (10%). Double chance for Deportivo Maipu or draw is 94%.